Further testing:
I desoldered the MOSFET from the board and it tested good-- I ran some LEDs through the drain to source, and was able to toggle them off and on by touching the gate to +5V and ground. I soldered the MOSFET back onto the board and I'm now getting high voltage at the test point-- mysterious!
I think the MOSFET got hot enough to partially melt the solder, and so it eventually worked itself into a point where it was effectively cold soldered to the board, and not making a good enough electrical connection to operate properly.
So the remedy is to find a way to get a heatsink on it, but I can't see doing that with my current board configuration.
By the way, I'm using the Arduinix circuit design but a custom board layout, as the Arduinix would have been too wide to fit in my enclosure:
http://blog.wingedvictorydesign.com/2010/10/13/my-nixie-clock-build/But I would be curious as to what temperature everyone else's MOSFET is-- warm to the touch? Scalding? If so, learn from my mistake and engineer some airflow into your enclosure.